FiveThirtyEight analysis shows Republican leanings in Arizona congressional maps

By Vaughan Jones
Published: Friday, February 4, 2022 - 1:51pm

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Members of the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission
Howard Fischer/Capitol Media Services
Members of the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission review various versions of maps on Oct. 28, 2021, for new congressional and legislative districts.

Statistics-based national election outlet FiveThirtyEight recently analyzed Arizona’s new congressional maps that resulted from the 2021 redistricting process.

The outlet’s projections show a shift toward Republican representatives.

Arizona’s new 6th District is currently represented by Ann Kirkpatrick, a Democrat who will not seek reelection. 

FiveThirtyEight’s projections show that the district shifted from a toss-up district to one with a Republican advantage.

Arizona’s new 4th District, currently represented by Greg Stanton, a Democrat, also shifted from a Democratic-leaning seat to a highly competitive district according to projections.

FiveThirtyEight’s new totals list two Democratic-leaning seats, six Republican-leaning, and one highly competitive district.

This is a change from the previous maps, adding one Republican-leaning seat and losing one Democratic-leaning seat.

Arizona 2021 congressional map
Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission