Modelers project 'major resurgence' of COVID-19 in Arizona

By Katherine Davis-Young
Published: Thursday, November 18, 2021 - 3:01pm
Updated: Friday, November 19, 2021 - 7:40am

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CHOP PolicyLab COVID projection
Children's Hospital of Philadelphia PolicyLab
The Children's Hospital of Philadelphia PolicyLab projects exponential growth in COVID-19 cases in Maricopa County over the next four weeks.

COVID-19 continues to spread quickly in Arizona, and modelers are now projecting exponential growth into December. 

The Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia’s PolicyLab tracks the rate of virus transmission county-by-county nationwide. Researches consider population density, climate and other factors to predict how COVID-19 will spread. The lab projects Maricopa County will see rapid acceleration of infections over the next four weeks.

“The vaccination rate in Arizona is not sufficient enough to avert what is likely going to be a major resurgence across Arizona, and it’s already starting," said Dr. David Rubin, PolicyLab director. "You’re seeing rates already over 300 weekly cases per 100,000 residents and that’s pretty substantial transmission.”

Rubin said the virus is spreading fastest among unvaccinated people, but he said at this rate, even vaccinated Arizonans need to be cautious.

“If your pretty vaccinated family is getting together for Thanksgiving in the middle of Phoenix, you can’t just mail it in. You have to be a little bit smart about how you do this,” Rubin said. 

Rubin suggests Arizonans get a COVID-19 test before gathering with others for the holidays. 

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