Arizona Pollsters Stand By 2020 Predictions

By Austin Fast
Published: Friday, November 6, 2020 - 5:17pm
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Political pollsters took a lot of flak for getting predictions about the 2016 presidential election so wrong, and it’s happening again this time around. Like the weather, political campaigns can shift quickly, making it tough to know where they'll end up. 

OH Predictive Insights Chief of Research Mike Noble said he can't speak for other pollsters across the country, but he stands by his company's predictions for the 2020 election in Arizona. 

"We had another big election year where it’s perceived pollsters got it wrong, which especially if you look at places like Florida, they absolutely whiffed it. However, at least here in Arizona, we absolutely nailed it," Noble said.

Noble’s final poll before the election showed Democrat Mark Kelly winning a seat in the U.S. Senate by 5 points, and former Vice President Joe Biden taking Arizona by 3 points. Of course, Arizona’s election officials are still counting ballots, but results as of Friday afternoon showed Kelly ahead by almost 4 points and Biden with a lead just over 1 point.

Around noon Friday, Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs told CNN they'll finish counting the quarter million remaining ballots by the end of the weekend.

President Donald Trump must maintain a pace of 58% of ballots breaking his way to win Arizona, according to Paul Bentz, senior vice president of research and strategy for the political consulting firm HighGround Inc.

"Trump will likely close the gap and it will be a narrow victory for Biden," Bentz said. "Without some miraculous change in the current vote tabulation, he will narrow the gap, but he won't be able to catch him up before Biden crosses the finish line."

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