New Arizona Election Poll Shows Biden Maintains Slim Lead Over Trump

By Austin Fast
Published: Friday, October 16, 2020 - 6:12pm
Updated: Saturday, October 17, 2020 - 10:58am

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With early ballots being filled out and mailed back to county election offices, former Vice President Joe Biden maintains a small lead against President Donald Trump, according to a new poll out this week from OH Predictive Insights.

The poll marks the first time that Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen was included alongside the two major party candidates, and she is the choice of 4% of Arizona voters.

“Joe Biden would get 49% of the vote if the election were held today. 45% Trump, and then 4% Jo Jorgensen," said Mike Noble, OH Predictive's chief of research. "The impact of that libertarian, even though it is small, could make a big difference in the final outcome, come November.”

When voters were then asked to pick only between Biden and Trump, 50% of voters chose Biden and 47% chose Trump. The phone survey included 608 respondents and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4%.

"This race appears to be narrowing as ballots start reaching voters’ mailboxes,” Noble said. “However, President Trump remains in danger of becoming the first Republican in a generation to lose Arizona."

In Arizona’s hotly contested Senate race, Mark Kelly continues to lead Sen. Martha McSally. The former astronaut earns the support of 50% of Arizonans compared to the former fighter pilot’s 45%.

OH Predictive Insights

Looking at ballot measures in Arizona, supporters of Proposition 208 — the Invest in Education Act — have a solid but not insurmountable lead over opponents of the measure. More than half (55%) of voters currently would support raising taxes on Arizona’s wealthy in order to increase education funding in the state, while 39% oppose.

Noble said Proposition 207 is in slightly better shape. Fifty-five percent of likely voters support legalizing recreational marijuana in Arizona while 37% are opposed. This is a stark difference from last month’s OH Predictive poll, which showed support and opposition to the measure statistically tied. Noble suggests this shift could be due to solidifying support among Democrats and Independents for the ballot initiative as well as a change in the question wording voters were asked in the poll. OHPI began using the official wording that will appear on ballots with this poll.

OH Predictive Insights

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