Projections Show Steep Climb In Maricopa County COVID-19 Cases

By Katherine Davis-Young
Published: Friday, June 12, 2020 - 1:00pm
Updated: Monday, June 15, 2020 - 10:21am

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Maricopa County PolicyLab COVID Projection
PolicyLab at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia
PolicyLab projects Maricopa County will see a steep increase in positive COVID-19 cases by the end of June.

Some projections show Maricopa County is on a dangerous trajectory for increasing COVID-19 cases. 

PolicyLab at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia uses cellphone location data to measure social distancing nationwide and compares that with positive cases by region. If social distancing continues at the level it is now in Maricopa County, PolicyLab researchers project a steep climb, with cases more than doubling by the end of the month. 

“I would say of all the places in the country right now, I’m most concerned about Maricopa in terms of the rate of rise in the cases that we’re seeing over the last couple of weeks,” said Dr. David Rubin, with PolicyLab. “It’s very clear now that there is an outbreak occurring, with widespread transmission in Maricopa County.”

Gov. Doug Ducey has said more positive cases are largely a result of more testing. Rubin said testing alone does not account for the speed of spread the region is seeing.

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“If you open too quickly, or you’re not vigilant around masking in indoor locations, you can quickly get yourself into trouble," Rubin said. 

Rubin said many other areas of the country are now seeing much slower spreads of the virus. He attributes that to cautious reopening plans and more widespread use of face masks.

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