Aging Boomers Could Mean Housing Boom For Metro Phoenix, Tucson

By Christina Estes, Mark Brodie
Published: Wednesday, December 11, 2019 - 4:51pm
Updated: Tuesday, December 17, 2019 - 12:24pm

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Some cities in Arizona could see thousands more homes enter the market over the next 20 years. And it’s not because of new construction.

Across the United States, more than one in three homes is owned by someone at least 60 years old, according to real estate database Zillow. As baby boomers get older and downsize — or die — Zillow estimates more than 20 million homes will hit the market.

Among large metro areas, Zillow estimates the Tucson-Nogales market will have the second biggest share of homes released into the market – more than 40% by 2037. Metro Phoenix is expected to see 28% of homes vacated. It’s much higher in El Mirage and Sun City where as many as 65% of owner-occupied homes are estimated to hit the market.

Between 2007 and 2017, approximately 730,000 homes were released into the market each year by people aged 60 and up. From 2017 to 2027, the number is expected to be 920,000 each year and from 2027 to 2037, it’s expected to hit 1.7 million per year.

Issi Romem has written about this. He's the founder of the urban economics firm MetroSight and recently worked at Zillow. Romem talked about this with The Show.



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