Here and Now - Election Analysis

There are two main lessons I take from the Arizona primary returns: Democrats down-ticket in Arizona are in trouble in the general election because of McCain's effective capture of the nomination, and women have flexed their political muscle - Hillary demonstrated that if you are going to be a 'minority' candidate running for President you should be the minority which is actually in the majority.

Because McCain will very likely win the nomination, Arizona becomes an untouchable Presidential wasteland, and Democrats have a significantly more work to do to overcome McCain's coat tails in down-ticket races. We can begin to see the wisdom in Gabby Giffords cryptic praise of McCain when he won New Hampshire; she saw the writing on the wall.

In Arizona, and every other 'Super' primary state where she won, women not only turned out in extraordinary numbers (often more than 20% more than men) but broke heavily toward Hillary. Every single one of her victories was the direct result of a strong preference by women voters. Where the sexes broke more evenly between Hillary and Barack, Barack won handily.

The fact that Barack won every party caucus is also instructive. Barack may the choice of the party activists, while Hillary may be the choice of women, at least in the deepest blue states where Hillary tended to win.

I tend to agree Michael. With John McCain heading the ticket in November, that only helps Arizona Republican candidates. The fact that the Democrats have a battle for their nomination also helps Republicans in November.

1. The fact that Hillary won in the "deepest blue" states is not as significant as you claim — in November, those states (NY, CA) are going to go 'D' no matter who the 'D' canddiate is.

2. Likewise, for Huckabee and his Dixie state wins (and Romney in Utah). Again, 'R' will carry those states no matter the candidate.

3. Presidential campaigns are electoral college affairs where the toss-up states are most relevant. Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Colorado, etc.… …given that, I would give a nod to Obama if I was truly concerned about winning with 'D' candidate…

4. Hillary has a supporter cap as a substantial number will NEVER vote for her. Obama has a factor where there are significant numbers of 'R' (and independent) voters that would cast a vote for him. Granted, Obama also is likely to draw opposition from bigoted / older voters, but those folks are not exactly going to support Clinton in lieu of the 'R' nominee.

--Naum
http://azspot.net

That the Democrat's nomination will be hotly contested isn't in doubt, but I don't think it hurts Democrats in the General. The GOP like to fall in line, the Democrats like to fall in love, as they say; this is just going to be love triangle for a while.

Forgot one…

5. Against Obama (not Hillary), don't think McCain, while favored, is a shoo-in. Pundits base McCain power on past Senate contests, where he has run unopposed, or the 'D' has had no financial backing from the national party. McCain (as I write this) only outpaced the 'D' winner in AZ by 20K votes…

Naum, I agree with you. You might have taken my comment about Hillary's wins in the deepest blue states the wrong way; it means she's a weaker candidate, not a stronger one, in my view.

This will definately be an interesting election, both Nationally & Local. McCain will unite the GOP, especially if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee. Naum is correct; 45% of the electorate will NOT vote for Hillary Clinton. For political junkies, this is really going to be fun!

Three Bloggers join us for a simultaneous online discussion about Super Tuesday:

Democrat Michael Bryan, Blog for Arizona: http://arizona.typepad.com/

Republican Jeff Vath, Political Mafiaoso: http://politicomafioso.blogspot.com/

Independent Matt Foraker: http://x4mr.blogspot.com/

Welcome gentlemen and thanks for participating!

How did the early voting ballots affect the outcome of the democratic primaries yesterday? Many of these were sent in weeks ago, when Hilary had a substantial lead. Obama has come even in the polls more recently- did these early votes make a difference in the close primaries?

Thank You for inviting me to your discussion of the Super Tuesday Primary. I am a Republican and John McCain supporter! Feel free to ask me any questions!

I am an Obama supporter. Is there information on the numbers and breakdown of early voters? It seems, in an active campaign like this, a voter might his mind after he votes. For instance, many people were completely turned off by Bill Clinton's over-the-top comments against Obama. That's why I don't vote early.

Early ballots were heavily for Clinton. It also didn't hurt that many Edwards voters sent in early ballots and were thus locked in to Edwards and couldn't shift their votes to Obama (and most Edwards folks went to Obama to my knowledge).

might CHANGE his mind

Carlo,

What I have seen is the Early Ballots really did make a difference for Hillary Clinton. That is from the Exit Polling data, but I am sure that is exactly what happened.

As a fiscally conservative independent, I am pleased with John McCain becoming the front runner of the Republican Party.

I am disappointed with the election process in Arizona. Firstly, I could not re-register from Independent to Republican online until I tried the Spanish webpage due to technical difficulties.
Secondly, after waiting almost an hour in line in the Arcadia neighborhood to vote, I had to vote a provisional ballot because my name was not on the registration list. I was not alone. It seemed everybody in line was having to go through the slow process of voting this way. If voter registration information was updated before the deadline, shouldn't the registration list have been up to date?

Joyce,

Your right when you mention that Bill Clinton alienated many of the Obama supporters with his speeches in SC. That is one of the reasons this race has become as close as it is.

I think you are in Maricopa, Christian? You County Supervisors are ultimately responsible for the operations of elections and should be reminded that it is important to you that elections are well-run and secure.

Christian I am sorry you had to go thru that mess. The rules for this election were different than the past. Only D's could vote for D's, only R's could vote for R's. That rule needs to be changed, I agree with you.

Did anyone else pick up on the huge margins for Clinton in CD 2 and 7? I suspect that 7 is due to strong Hispanic support for Clinton, but I am at a loss to explain the lopsided Democratic vote for Hillary in CD 2. Any ideas?

Michael I haven't had the opportunity to go thru the AZ returns by CD yet. But here is an interesting fact: John McCain stands to win 51 of the 53 CA Congressional Districts. That would give him 167 of the 173 GOP Delegates from CA. That is amazing!

Jeff:
I think Bill alienated Hillary's supporters, and they went to Obama. Is that what you meant?

I totally disagree w/ your guests. Most people I know are not flame throwers, but we HATE the currant administration w/ passion. We HATE that possibly 2 elections were stolen. We HATE that we've been in a war forever and have lost many lives and much treasure. There is a great passion, and we a re really upset w/ the current Democrats in Congress for NOT fighting the Republicans More, not less. There is great, and probably justified partisinship.

What is somewhat ironic about McCain is that exit polls indicate that he is the choice of those both who are disgusted and fed up with Bush policies, AND those who are satisfied with Bush's policies, especially on taxes and Iraq. So McCain somehow has managed to appeal to both right-track and wrong-track Republican voters. Quite a balancing act.

Yes Michael wasn't that weird? Makes no sense to me, but as a McCain supporter, I will take it...LOL!

I was surprised by the Hispanic vote in Arizona. The final McClatchy poll indicated a heavy preference for Obama, yet Clinton none-the-less won the Hispanic vote quite handily not just here, but throughout the SW. I thought that Obama managed to overcome his Hispanic deficit, but apparently not.

I also found quite significant the fact that Obama won every Demcoratic Caucus. Convincingly. He clearly has momentum and an enthusiastic activist base willing to work for him.

Although Clinton will be able to spin her wins in major states like NY, CA, NJ, MA into momentum, Obama's greater number of wins and continuing near parity in delegates means that Tuesday was certainly not determinative in any way.

Obama's continuing mo', his slamming fund-raising, and the more favorable shedule into the future are great assets. This is going down the wire for Democrats. Probably the deciding issue will be superdelegates and the decision as to seating of the Florida and Michigan delegates.

Michael as a McCain supporter, I am rooting for Hillary to win your Nomination. Obama would be a very tough candidate in a General Election where as Clinton has many skelletons in her closet!

Thanks Michael, Jeff and Matt. Matt had some technical issues, so wasn't able to contribute online!

The point Matt made during his bit on the air is very important. (16 million primary voters cast votes for either Obama or Clinton, less than 5 million cast ballots for McCain) The turnouts among Democratic primary voters has been consistently amazing, and if that participation continues into the General, Democrats will be in a cake walk.